Oakland Diesel Price Outlook for April–June 2026
Oakland Container Trucking shares a three‑scenario outlook for Oakland diesel prices covering April through June 2026. The projections are anchored to 6.692 dollars per gallon as of March 18 and are designed to give shippers a structured way to think about fuel risk when planning port trucking and export schedules.
Instead of a single prediction, OCT lays out bull, base, and bear cases with clear probabilities, Brent crude ranges, and monthly diesel price bands.
| Scenario | Probability | Brent crude range (per barrel) | Late‑March diesel | April diesel | May diesel | June diesel | Record breach? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 20–25% | 75–85 dollars | 6.70–6.90 | 6.40–6.70 | 6.00–6.40 | 5.80–6.20 | Exceeds 7.129 dollars record unlikely |
| Base | 45–50% | 90–100 dollars | 6.90–7.20 | 7.00–7.50 | 7.20–7.70 | 7.30–7.90 | Exceeds 7.129 dollars record likely in April–May |
| Bear | 25–30% | 110–130 dollars | 7.10–7.40 | 7.40–8.20 | 8.00–8.80 | 8.50–9.50+ | Exceeds 7.129 dollars record as early as late March |
All three scenarios reference the prior 2022 record of 7.129 dollars per gallon. In the bull case, diesel trends below that level and gradually eases through June. In the base case, diesel crosses the record in April and May before settling into the upper‑seven range by June. In the bear case, diesel breaks the record in late March and climbs toward the upper‑eight to nine‑plus range by early summer.
Note: All diesel price bands, probabilities, and record‑breach expectations are projections and are subject to change.
Each scenario is backed by a specific narrative about ceasefire timing, Strait of Hormuz conditions, and market response.
Ceasefire within 30–45 days
Hormuz restored late April
Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases absorb shortfall
Crude 75–85 dollars per barrel
Diesel peaks 6.90–7.20 dollars, eases to 5.80–6.20 dollars in June
Drayage surcharges moderate to 25–30 percent
Aligns with EIA March STEO
Shut‑ins peak early April, ease later
Partial transit through Hormuz in May
Brent around 90–95 dollars in Q2
Diesel 7.00–7.50 dollars in April as Valero Benicia closes, breaches the record, then stays 7.30–7.90 dollars in June
Drayage surcharges set for 40–55 percent
Sustained closure through June with escalation and shut‑ins
Brent 110–130 dollars per barrel
Diesel surpasses the 2022 record in late March and reaches 8.50–9.50+ dollars in June, the highest in history
Drayage needs surcharges in the 60–80 percent range
Note: Scenario drivers, crude ranges, diesel paths, and drayage surcharge levels are projections and are subject to change as conditions evolve.
Each scenario is backed by a specific narrative about conflict duration, Strait of Hormuz conditions, and market response.
Ceasefire within 30–45 days.
Hormuz restored late April.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases absorb shortfall.
Brent crude 75–85 dollars per barrel.
Diesel peaks around 6.70–6.90 dollars in late March, then eases to 5.80–6.20 dollars by June.
Drayage surcharges moderate at 25–30 percent.
Aligns with EIA March STEO.
Shut‑ins peak early April, then ease later.
Partial Hormuz transit returns in May.
Brent crude around 90–95 dollars in Q2.
Diesel at 7.00–7.50 dollars in April as Valero Benicia closes, breaching the 2022 record, and 7.30–7.90 dollars in June.
Drayage fuel surcharges set around 40–55 percent.
Sustained closure through June with escalation and shut‑ins.
Brent crude in the 110–130 dollar range.
Diesel surpasses the 2022 record in late March and reaches 8.50–9.50+ dollars in June, the highest range in history.
Drayage operations require fuel surcharges in the 60–80 percent range.
Note: Scenario drivers, crude ranges, diesel peaks, and drayage surcharge levels are projections and are subject to change as conditions evolve.
Bay Area diesel hit 7 dollars per gallon on March 18, 2026, up 45.1 percent in one month and just 0.12 dollars below the all‑time record of 7.12 dollars set in June 2022. At the current daily rate of increase, the record could be broken by late March.
Three forces are driving this spike:
The U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, described as the largest oil supply disruption in history by the IEA.
The Valero Benicia refinery, the Bay Area’s primary diesel source, is closing in April.
California’s regulatory costs add roughly 1.40–1.50 dollars per gallon above the national baseline.
Under the base case (45–50 percent probability), Oakland diesel reaches 7.00–7.50 dollars in April and 7.30–7.90 dollars by June, breaching the 2022 record. The bear case projects 8.50–9.50+ dollars if the Hormuz disruption persists.
Note: Current price levels, contributing forces, and scenario projections are subject to change as market and regulatory conditions evolve.
OCT pairs its diesel outlook with a reminder of the specialized services available for complex freight at the Port of Oakland. These offerings help shippers keep projects on track regardless of which fuel scenario unfolds.
OCT handles heavy machinery transloading for large equipment that needs careful lifting and staging between vessel, rail, and truck. The focus is on safe movement and correct positioning so high‑value assets stay protected throughout the transfer.
Note: Heavy machinery handling processes, equipment availability, and timelines are subject to change.
Insulated containers and out‑of‑gauge crates receive dedicated attention. OCT manages these units with awareness of both temperature needs and dimensional challenges, from arrival at the terminal to departure on domestic equipment.
Note: Container insulation and OOG crate service details, including methods and capacity, are subject to change.
Coils and reels transloading, along with a broader specialty cargo offering, support industrial shipments such as steel, coils, reels, and large project pieces. Securement and yard layout are configured to handle unique shapes and weights reliably.
Note: Coils, reels, and specialty cargo handling capabilities and procedures are subject to change.
Beyond special projects, OCT presents three core service pillars that support day‑to‑day port operations.
Key drayage features include:
Port and rail ramp container service
Rentals, prepull, and storage options
HazMat and OOG drayage capability
Overweight container handling
Reefer container support
Local and regional coverage for Oakland moves
Note: Drayage service features, coverage, and equipment options are subject to change.
Transloading services are designed to bridge ocean freight and inland trucking:
Transloading of palletized cargo
Handling of non palletized freight
Stripping and reloading of containers
Cross‑dock operations and short‑term storage
Work with specialty cargo such as steel, coils, and machinery
Note: Transloading services, commodities handled, and operating details are subject to change.
OCT’s warehousing solutions near the Port of Oakland provide flexible storage:
Racked and floor storage space
Capacity for palletized, crated, and oversized cargo
Short‑term and long‑term storage options
Integration with OCT drayage and transloading operations
Note: Warehouse capacity, storage terms, and service availability are subject to change.
When time is tight, OCT offers the Drayage Calculator 2.0 so shippers can obtain a rate in less than 20 seconds. Users enter shipment details into a streamlined form and select “Calculate the Rate” to receive instant, accurate pricing by email.
This quick estimate helps logistics teams react faster to shifting diesel scenarios and vessel schedules without waiting on lengthy back‑and‑forth quotes.
Note: Drayage Calculator 2.0 features, response times, and pricing outputs are subject to change.
Note: Vessel names, receiving windows, cutoffs, arrival times, and gate hours are all subject to change without notice.
OCT’s combination of detailed Oakland diesel price scenarios, specialized cargo capabilities, integrated drayage‑transloading‑warehousing services, fast quoting, and a clear vessel schedule gives shippers a practical planning toolkit for the Port of Oakland. With these pieces in place, it becomes much easier to align budgets, routes, and timing for containers, heavy machinery, coils, reels, and other specialty cargo.
If you are preparing your next move through Oakland, this is an ideal moment to map your shipments to OCT’s scenarios, services, and schedules so your operations stay ahead of potential fuel and vessel changes.